MISCALCULATIONS IN SOMALILAND POLITICS
Posted by Sawnews.tk on October 2, 2009
Kulmiye Party’s power has been in decline since the unfortunate power struggle conference held in Burco due to the miscalculation of its power hungry individuals. The decline has been continuing since then. The ill advice from those individuals has dragged us to tit-tit skirmishes in some parts of the country as well as land grabs and killings.
The Burco miscalculation:
Under intense negotiations among the party leaders and evaluation of the political landscape of the country, the leaders has calculated the power bases of the electorate and based on that the final the choice of the president and his running mate. They sidelined some very important, influential, well respected, and hard-core elements of the party. As a result of that a mass exodus of important people from the party has overshadowed Kulmiye Party and ended in the disarray of the party. In this Burco Conference, the reason why they have chosen some party hierarchies over the others was the belief that some hard-core party members have less influence and support from their clan bases and thought some false names (Geesiyal toll waayey) attached to some of them were a liability to the party. The selection process was hijacked through such false assumptions from people in the party hierarchy who were eventually taken over the power house of the party. Those who believe otherwise were given the boot and up till now are in the pool and have not participated in the political discussion. They are watching the party’s down fall from their houses.
The frustration and stress created by the ill conceived Burco Conference
After Kulmiye Leaders realized that their plan cannot work, the power hungry members of the party have taken a dangerous road and have divided the people along tribal lines. They have tried every kind of conspiracy in order to gain some votes but to no avail. The wisdom of the people has prevailed. The people have rejected the party’s distractive hidden agenda. This has put a lot of pressure party leaders and created more distrust among them and supporters. This frustration caused them act wildly without considering the consequences.
The fruits of the bad choices
The party’s leaders have worked haphazardly without clear vision. The stress level of the leaders has been intensifying for some time and they are not thinking on the same level with the leaders of the other parties. We have seen that this stress is working and taking its toll on certain individuals. Because of this everything they do is working against them and the party. Those individuals’ arguments and solutions were always negative. We have seen all along that they have been calling demonstration after demonstration and always attacking the leaders of UDUB and its followers. They thought it is fun to disagree with the Guurti and Parliament and reject the law of the land and the constitution. They thought they could circumvent the constitution and outsmart all others. They would have never imagined that the tide would turn on them and force them to capitulation. They have tried every possible scenario but this only has increased their stress and frustration.
Is Kumiye better off without some hard-core members?
One of the reasons why Siilaanyo has sidelined some members was that he thought that they have no support in their clans. Looking back the ambitions of the present leaders of Kulmiye and the road they took to gain people’s support was based on lack of understanding of the political spectrum in Somaliland. Though there are many political and intellectual heavy weights, such as Ali Gurey, Ahmed Esse, Mohamed Haji Mohamoud, Osman Hindi, Ibrahim Dhegawayne, Issa Curaagte, Abdirahaman Aw Ali, and many more, one particular scenario, the choice of Mr. Saylici over Hon. Abdirahman Ali Farah, needs attention.
Abdirahman is one of the brave leaders who created Somaliland as well as its political structure. He is one of those people who has suffered and endured the hardships of the past and present struggle. Abdirahman is a uniter not a divider. He has been busy in uniting the Somalilanders since the start of the struggle for Somaliland. He is respected by the majority of Somalilanders for his role in the struggle for Somaliland and in the establishment of the Somaliland political and governmental institutions. He is a seasoned politician and enjoys dealing with friends and foes. He fights for Somaliland to remain independent and he believes in the struggle ahead. He is a fighter for his rights and the rights of his people. He tested his leadership as being a military leader and VP. These traits can be witnessed by the majority of the people. To underestimate such a person who has the charisma of a leader was a mistake. Siilaanyo has assumed that the other has a power base that abdirahaman lacks. But this is a false assumption and has become an obstacle to the party’s popularity in some regions.
About Mr. Saylici, I have nothing to say about him except that he lacks the experience of a politician and a leader. He may be a liability to the party. The assumption that his power base will benefit more to the party was an ignorant mistake. The assumption that Abdirahman was cut from a tree will haunt Siilaanyo and the likes. However, I wish Mr.saylici a good luck in the election.
Will the six pillars succeed?
The six pillars from the heaven will likely succeed if the stress and frustration from Opposition Party leaders subside. It is customary in politics when a party fails in its agenda to revise its mistakes and to make changes in the party lineups and start a new page. However, the opposition leaders have already started excuses and finger pointing. Reading their recent press releases shows they are putting the blame on the Government and the Election Commission. They are blaming those two institutions on the failure of the negotiations and also the cause of the intervention from foreigners. I would like to highlight some of the comments made by the opposition leaders so that the readers can have some insights of the facts. Please read some parts of the conversation between Jumhuuriya and Faisal Waraabee and Mr. Siilaanyo.
Guddoomiyaha xisbiga mucaaradka ah ee UCID Eng. Faysal Cali-waraabe oo Jamhuuriya xalay fiidkii khadka telefoonka ugu warramayey, ayaa sheegay IN KOMISHANKA IYO XUKUUMADDA MADAXWEYNE DAAHIR RAYAALE MASUUL KA YIHIIN IN BEESHA CAALAMKU SOO FAROGELIYAAN MAAMULKA HAWLAHA DOORASHOOYINKA SOMALILAND.
…………..“Horta maalmo yar ayaa ka soo wareegay go’aankii Guurtida, saddexda xisbi qaranna imminka ayey hawlahooda bilaabayaan, SHUUSHKIINA WUU BAXAY oo waxa laga wada shaqaynayaa sidii doorashadu innoogu qabsoomi lahayd, wax-wada-qabsi ayaana bilaabmay.
MUDDADA Madaxweynaha ee dadka qaarkii leeyihiin WAY DABA FURAN TAHAY WAX JIRA MA AHA oo sharci sheegayaa inay muddada madaxweynuhu daba furnaato ma jiro, dadka sidaa u hadlayana uma qurux badna oo waxa ka fiican inay aqoontu ina hagto. Muddada xilka madaxweynuhu dabada ayey ka furan tahay wax caqliga galaya maaha.
……….. “MAGAC-XUMADAA WAXA INOO SOO JIIDAY WAXA KA MID AH KOMISHANKA DOORASHOOYINKA JILICDASAN EE MUSUQMAASUQA AH, WAXANA HADDA LAGA ILAALINAYAA INAY FADHATAYSTAAN ALAABTII KOMISHANKA IYO QALABKII AY KU SHAQAYNAYEEN SIDA KOMBIYUUTARRADII LAABTOBYADA (LAPTOB) AHAA; WAXA KU XIGA XUKUUMADDAN HADDA JIRTA OO MARKII SANNADKA LOO KORDHIYEY ISKA SEEXATAY, MARKII LIXDA BILOOD LOO KORDHIYEYNA KHUURO DHEER SII GASHAY, MARKAA WAXAY KU FASHILMEEN INAY MUDDADAAS DOORASHO KU QABTAAN, TAASINA WAA TA KEENTAY IN BEESHA CAALAMKU INOO SOO GURMATO.
Mr. Siilaanyo has said the following:
………… “Qoladan Komishanka aad ayaa loo ogyahay inay hawshii loo dhiibay ku fashilmeen, khilaafka jira ee doorashooyinka muddada badan dib u dhigayna qayb ayey ka lahaayeen, waana arrin lagu qoslo haddii Guddoomiyaha Komishanku yidhi cid na eryi kartaa ma jirto, sida ugu dhakhsaha badan ayaana loo beddelayaa, hawshoodiinaa waa lagu jiraa maadaama ay qayb ka yihiin lixdii qodob ee beesha caalamku soo saartay, xisbiyada qarankuna isku raaceen oo qodobka ugu weyn ahaa in komishanka la beddelo, markaa sida ugu dhaw ayaa loo beddelayaa oo hawshooda loo gudo-galayaa.”
………… “Horta hawluhu way isdaba socodaan, qaarna way is-barbar soconayaan si wakhtiga looga gaadhsiiyo, marka hore heshiiskii ayaa la saxeexayaa. Arrinta komishanka ayaa la gudo-galayaa, sidaas ayey hawluhu u soconayaa. Arrinta Serfarka markii hore INTERPEACE waxay tidhi wuxuu qaadan karaa afar ilaa shan toddobaad, markaa iminkana sidaa ayey noqonaysaa oo kolleyba inta la isla eego oo qolooyinka khubarradu eegaan ayaa la sheegi doonaa muddada ay qaadanayso.”
…“Annagu wax werwer ah oo aannu ka qabnaa ma jirto oo ciddii awalba dhexdhexaadinta wadday ayaa ku jirta, waxana lagu hawlan yahay iminka sidii hawlahaas loo hirgelin lahaa, kolleybana sida ugu dhakhsaha badan ayaa loo hawlgeli doonaa,” ayuu yidhi Axmed-Siilaanyo.
HERE WE GO AGAIN
The opposition leaders are continuing the satanic arguments and pointing fingers at Rayaale and the commission. They are still trying to destroy the evidences from the crime scenes born from their unfortunate miscalculations and poor advices. The people know that the opposition leaders are solely responsible of the statuesque, the stalemate and all the crimes taken place in the confrontations from the demonstrations and other conspiracies. Those leaders should learn from their mistakes and move forward with repentance to God. Mr. Waraabe has said in the above quotations that the Plague ( Shuush ) has ended. It was better for him to say they apologize and are going stop the plague they have created from spreading. It is reminded that the items proposed are very simple and straight forward and sequential.
- Fix server problem and come up with the correct data
- Fix the election date
- Prepare for an election
The timing depends on how fast the server is fixed and if the result is acceptable to all sides. Timing has nothing to do with how long the President can stay. The opposition party leaders know that without listening to our neighbors, there will be no easy way for them to travel to and forth as they wish ( the reader understands what this means).
The fact that they have at last signed the agreement does not meant that they will stop nagging and condemning others for baseless accusations. Hopefully, the opposition leaders will come to their senses and abide by the historical agreement. It is historical because it has been forced on us by a historical enemy of Somalia. Although this agreement is an insult to all Somalilanders because it is has been dictated to us with a hidden ultimatum to the leaders, it is better than none. The opposition leaders have no choice except to follow what our African neighbors want them to do.
In addition to that, if Kulmiye wants to succeed in power, the party leaders have to change their tactics and apologize to the families whose loved ones have lost their lives and to others whose members have suffered from their murderous tactics. The Kulmiye leaders must and should implement the six pillars or they lose friends and foes. The nations who proposed the six pillars are our neighbors and are watching us and at what we do with those six points.
By Mohamed Mousa